A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population by Stanley K. Smith PDF

By Stanley K. Smith

ISBN-10: 9400775504

ISBN-13: 9789400775503

ISBN-10: 9400775512

ISBN-13: 9789400775510

This e-book makes a speciality of the method and research of kingdom and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main widely used info assets and alertness ideas for 4 varieties of projection tools: cohort-component, pattern extrapolation, structural types, and microsimulation. It covers the elements of inhabitants progress, assets of information, the formation of assumptions, the advance of assessment standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of assorted projection tools and will pay distinctive awareness to the original difficulties that represent small-area projections. The authors offer useful tips to demographers, planners, marketplace analysts, and others referred to as directly to build nation and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing designated populations, distinctive conditions, and insufficient or unreliable info. They describe innovations for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., institution enrollment, households). They speak about the function of judgment and the significance of the political context during which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for determination making in an international of competing calls for and constrained assets. This complete ebook will supply readers with an realizing not just of the mechanics of the main standard inhabitants projection tools, but in addition of the numerous complicated concerns affecting their development, interpretation, evaluate, and use.​

Show description

Read or Download A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections PDF

Best demography books

The New Mind of the South - download pdf or read online

There are those that say the South has disappeared. yet in her groundbreaking, thought-provoking exploration of the zone, Tracy Thompson, a Georgia local and Pulitzer Prize finalist, asserts that it has in basic terms drawn on its oldest culture: a capability to conform and remodel itself. Thompson spent years touring during the sector and came across a South either amazingly comparable and considerably diverse from the land she knew as a baby.

Download e-book for iPad: Recapturing Space: New Middle-Range Theory in Spatial by Frank M. Howell, Jeremy R. Porter, Stephen A. Matthews

With a special specialize in middle-range concept, this booklet info the appliance of spatial research to demographic study as a fashion of integrating and higher figuring out the several transitional parts of the general demographic transition. This e-book first information key thoughts and measures in glossy spatial demography and indicates how they are often utilized to middle-range thought to higher comprehend humans, areas, groups and relationships in the course of the global.

Additional info for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections

Sample text

4 Demographic Balancing Equation The overall growth or decline of a population is determined by the interplay among the processes of mortality, fertility, and migration. The nature of this interplay is formalized in the demographic balancing equation: Pl À Pb ¼ B À D þ IM À OM where Pl is the population at the end of the time period; Pb is the population at the beginning of the time period; and B, D, IM, and OM are the number of births, deaths, in-migrants, and out-migrants during the time period, respectively.

Many cities, metropolitan areas, block groups, voting districts, and ZIP code areas, however, have experienced sudden (and sometimes large) boundary changes. Although the Census Bureau attempts to hold census tract boundaries constant from one decennial census to another (except for subdivisions into coterminous sets of smaller tracts), changes at other levels of census geography occur frequently. 2 Components of Change 27 when necessary. Consistent measures of population change are possible only if geographic boundaries are held constant over time.

2 Components of Change 27 when necessary. Consistent measures of population change are possible only if geographic boundaries are held constant over time. Changes in the accuracy of the base data also affect the measurement of population change. For example, suppose that a city’s population was counted as 10,000 in 2000 and 11,000 in 2010, but that it was later discovered that the 2010 census had missed an apartment complex with 1,000 residents. The population change based on the corrected numbers (2,000) would be twice as large as the change based on the uncorrected numbers (1,000).

Download PDF sample

A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections by Stanley K. Smith

by Christopher

Rated 4.67 of 5 – based on 49 votes