By Stanley K. Smith
This e-book makes a speciality of the method and research of kingdom and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main widely used info assets and alertness ideas for 4 varieties of projection tools: cohort-component, pattern extrapolation, structural types, and microsimulation. It covers the elements of inhabitants progress, assets of information, the formation of assumptions, the advance of assessment standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of assorted projection tools and will pay distinctive awareness to the original difficulties that represent small-area projections. The authors offer useful tips to demographers, planners, marketplace analysts, and others referred to as directly to build nation and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing designated populations, distinctive conditions, and insufficient or unreliable info. They describe innovations for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., institution enrollment, households). They speak about the function of judgment and the significance of the political context during which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for determination making in an international of competing calls for and constrained assets. This complete ebook will supply readers with an realizing not just of the mechanics of the main standard inhabitants projection tools, but in addition of the numerous complicated concerns affecting their development, interpretation, evaluate, and use.
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Additional info for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
4 Demographic Balancing Equation The overall growth or decline of a population is determined by the interplay among the processes of mortality, fertility, and migration. The nature of this interplay is formalized in the demographic balancing equation: Pl À Pb ¼ B À D þ IM À OM where Pl is the population at the end of the time period; Pb is the population at the beginning of the time period; and B, D, IM, and OM are the number of births, deaths, in-migrants, and out-migrants during the time period, respectively.
Many cities, metropolitan areas, block groups, voting districts, and ZIP code areas, however, have experienced sudden (and sometimes large) boundary changes. Although the Census Bureau attempts to hold census tract boundaries constant from one decennial census to another (except for subdivisions into coterminous sets of smaller tracts), changes at other levels of census geography occur frequently. 2 Components of Change 27 when necessary. Consistent measures of population change are possible only if geographic boundaries are held constant over time.
2 Components of Change 27 when necessary. Consistent measures of population change are possible only if geographic boundaries are held constant over time. Changes in the accuracy of the base data also affect the measurement of population change. For example, suppose that a city’s population was counted as 10,000 in 2000 and 11,000 in 2010, but that it was later discovered that the 2010 census had missed an apartment complex with 1,000 residents. The population change based on the corrected numbers (2,000) would be twice as large as the change based on the uncorrected numbers (1,000).
A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections by Stanley K. Smith